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Mar 28, 2023
In General Discussion
A unanimous response to Russia's "special military operations" on Ukrainian soil, with economic isolation of Ukraine through commercial and financial sanctions. This military action will change Russia's relations with most of the world in ways that are not yet foreseeable. This study analyzes the short-term impact of disruptions in international trade on the economy, considering different quarantine scenarios. The economic impact of production in 189 countries is simulated using hypothesis extraction and multiregional input-output modeling. The results showed that the most affected countries were Russia, where production fell by 10.1% under EU sanctions, while in Australia, Canada, Japan, the United States and the United Kingdom. Production fell sharply in the European countries that are geographically closest to Russia and have the largest trade flows, including Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Finland, Hungary and Poland. In Russia, the most affected economic sectors are re-export and re-import, as well as mining and quarrying. Finally, the estimated impact is a lower bound, since impacts related to financial sanctions, exchange rates, commodity prices, etc. are not taken into account. Re-import and mining and quarrying. Finally, the estimated impact is a lower bound, since impacts related to financial sanctions, exchange rates, commodity prices, etc. are not taken into account. Re-import and B2B Email List and quarrying. Finally, the estimated impact is a lower bound, as impacts related to financial sanctions, exchange rates, commodity prices, etc. were not taken into account. Keywords: Magnetic Resonance Model Input/Output War Economics International Trade Previous Article View Issues Next Article 1. Introduction to Ukraine’s “Special Military Operations” Footnote 1 Main Products Exported to Russia (such as oil, natural gas, coal, The price of wheat, aluminum, etc.) has a series of direct economic effects. At the same time, world stock markets fell, the ruble weakened and the price of gold rose as the metal is a safe haven asset for investors in times of heightened uncertainty. The economic and financial sanctions imposed by Europe and other Western countries in retaliation for this military action were swift, coordinated, gradual, and stronger than expected. Economic sanctions have mainly targeted specific sectors of the Russian economy, but Germany, due to its heavy reliance on energy, has still not restricted gas purchases. The financial sanctions are aimed at freezing Russian assets and preventing Russian banks from accessing the SWIFT system. Instead of stopping the conflict, the sanctions are trying to make it harder to fund the military operation. Nonetheless, Russia claims it has sufficient financial resources to ensure financial stability in the face of sanctions and external threats.
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